It looks like Krugman and 'ace' economists have finally come round to accept that we are facing or we are in Depression 3.0! I had mentioned about Depression 2.0. I am not an economics student and obviously didnt know about the 'Panic of 1873' that Krugman mentions in his column of 'The Third Depression'.
What is the way out? Well, according to me, cut salaries everywhere and anywhere, worldwide. People have to stop feeling that they are more equal than others and hence have to be paid more. This is not going to happen and so we are going to enjoy Depression 3.0 for a long long time or to quote Krugman
And who will pay the price for this triumph of orthodoxy? The answer is, tens of millions of unemployed workers, many of whom will go jobless for years, and some of whom will never work again.
To quote a line earlier
It is, instead, the victory of an orthodoxy that has little to do with rational analysis, whose main tenet is that imposing suffering on other people is how you show leadership in tough times.
Well that looks like a line taken out of Communist Manifesto ;) The fact is that it is indeed the truth and it does have some parallels in India with the caste system or even the $crewism theory - there are two kinds of people - those whose $crew others and those who get $crewed :(
“As long as we have the language, we have the culture. As long as we have the culture, we can hold on to the land.”
Quite a few have said that I have good 'intuitive' skills but I think I have a good 'inbuilt warning' system. I think I am able to sense the looming or going-to-loom dangers much earlier. Sometimes it could lead to 'over thinking' or 'over presuming' things, but till date my skepticism has been good, though my sisters think that I am 'too -ve' :( I remember the test series in Australia when the controversy was raised, courtesy Harsha Bhogle, Sunil Gavaskar and co over Ganguly dismissal
I was watching it live and even though I may 'support' Ganguly many times, in that case, I knew that something was wrong, though it was Ganguly who was dismissed. The issue was later revealed that Kumble and Ponting had an agreement that fielder's word will be taken and so all this 'furore' was nothing but non-sensical.
When World Classical Tamil Conference was announced, I was neither surprised at the need to praise the 'classical Tamil' nor irritated as some of these 'pro-Tamil/LTTE' idiots were. I was definitely surprised at why Coimbatore was chosen as the venue. I asked a relative from Coimbatore and he said that only Coimbatore has the infrastructure for holding such a conference. Like many other people from Coimbatore, he probably has an axe to grind against Chennai, but my point was why not Trichy or even better, Madurai. After all, Madurai is the 'seat' of Tamil. I was later told or even recently by my chithi's son from Coimbatore - DMK is basically very weak in Coimbatore region and that is why MK announced it here. Development works are going on in war footing - so he said. That settled it for me. No surprises, Coimbatore all decked up for grand Tamil meet. Sure, MK is easily the most educated Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu and has special affection for Tamil but he is not the most successful politician in India (atleast in elections) for nothing. He has brilliantly mixed his love for the language along with a political motive. I really cant blame him at all.
Though Tamil is my second language (I dont think I would have even thought of choosing Hindi or Sanskrit as second language just because it enables me to get higher marks), the fact is that atleast during my school days, English was the medium of instruction and with my father having his own small library of ONLY English books, I was more conversant with 'English' world. I read so much about Perry Mason, Hardy Boys, Three Investigators, Alistair Maclean etc and dont even remember reading one single Tamil non-text book. Infact, I didnt even read Tamil papers unless I went to a barber shop! I did not think what others thought about Tamil, maybe they think English is better than Tamil (going by films and 'experts'). Some of my relatives were living outside TN and surely their children didnt know to read/write Tamil. Like any other brahmin kid, I too 'learnt' Hindi but this concept of 'classroom teaching' didnt suit me and I passed 'Rashtrabasha' in first class on my own and STOPPED going further. At the same time, I dont see 'learning in mother tongue' as a great thing at all.
I have been seeing recently that students from rural Tamil Nadu are doing much better in all exams and to quote from the link above,
Tamil Nadu accounted for 16.2% of successful candidates in recently concluded civil service examinations.
Tamils have made themselves amenable to most changes and Tamil itself is one of the earliest languages to be made computer ready. For a language which is so old, I felt that it is incredibly simple and easy to learn for anyone, because probably it is highly intuitive and common-sensical. Just when I get irritated with languages like French or Hindi which are NOT gender neutral, Tamil has so many easy-to-use, SIMPLE and intuitively great features. I have to say that at the same time, I am ashamed that my skills in Tamil are not higher, atleast on par with English.
Coming to the conference, the theme song penned by MK himself got a shot in the arm with music from AR Rahman and a picturization by Gautham Menon. I think MK must have chosen them on his own and it also suits the mood for the conference because it enables to highlight that Tamil has indeed kept up with time. More often, language 'guardians' are often branded as 'conservatives', 'old-timers' and 'traditionalists' etc. So a mix of genres in the music and the picturization for the theme song was nothing but APT.
Yet another marriage was over, but now for a change, I as an 'adopted brother' had practically nothing to do but to be physically present, do some 'rituals' as a brother of the bride. The rituals in Hindu marriage are really tiresome and I dont know who is going to bell this boring cat :( The two principal characters of a marriage are so occupied in the mundane activities in those two days that it is not at all a surprise that I have not heard of any married person who has watched the video of their own marriage. Going through it itself is such a big pain and having to go through it once more can be near death :)) Yes, one added benefit is that I was gifted a gold ring.
Of course, I had mentioned that world is indeed a small place and it is not by design that people whom we had met in another proposition before come in close encounter. My sister probably want to 'pep' me up by concocting some imaginary conversation that my mother had with her. For one, I dont need to be 'pep'ped up and my mother is not the kind to indulge in the 'imaginary' conversation as told by my sister. She is just replaying the plot in movies. If the lead pair in the movie 'breaks' up for some reason, I dont see any reason why they inevitably have to marry someone who is not 'as good as, if not better than, the might-have-been'. I think this has got to do with religion and the ideas that there is always a pay-back for our deeds. If I betray someone, I will pay for it 'sooner or later'.
Well, almost the same thing here as well. They seem to make a pretty happy and good couple and most importantly, I did not ever miss the 'lost opportunity'. My sister probably thought that I was finding it hard to get over that not-more-than-20-minute-encounter years back. Infact, another girl came and told me 'Hi'. I could only ask 'who are you?' and she said that she too was present in that meeting :)) Well, I have a good memory for sure, but I always call it RAM and only few bytes get stored in hard disk for later retrieval. Rest of them are in cache and gets swiped immediately :))
Great Depression 2.0? Yes or no, but the inflation is well and truly set in India, if not the rest of the world. There are some reasons offered for inflation in India, for instance, Pulses, fruits and milk push food inflation to 16.74 p.c. I think the total issue is being viewed upside down. It is the government imposed taxes and prices (petrol/diesel for instance) which is leading to the escalation of prices of pulses, fruits and milk.
I seem to be of the view that government is the necessary evil in this case. There has to be a central government to promote 'equal opportunities' in everything for everybody. On the other hand, the government has to be even more federal. VAT in India was imposed because most shops and vendors evaded sales tax by showing lesser sales. Sales tax directly gave state governments easier and better access to financial resources. With VAT coming in, central Govt was supposed to 'compensate' state governments. In theory, VAT is good for having a better control of taxes in 'structured' markets, but in practice India thrives ONLY in 'informal markets' and not really by a well-oiled regulatory mechanism. To quote from the article on experience of VAT in India,
on one hand economic reforms have led to decentralization of expenditure responsibilities, which in turn demands more decentralization of revenue raising power if fiscal accountability is to be maintained. On the other hand, implementing VAT (to make India a single integrated market) would lead to revenue losses for the States and reduce their autonomy indicating greater centralization.
The only way vendors could lower the sale prices of items was to evade taxes. With tax evasion (NOT avoidance) no longer in the picture, because of VAT, the only way consumer can hope of lower prices is to expect 'shop keepers and vendors' to be socialistic. Well, business is all about making money and who will speak socialism, forget communism, in a capitalist scenario? Who is going to say that gain of Rs.5/- is enough than to make a kill with a profit of Rs.50/-?
Krugman, Stiglitz and co are talking of deflation and other threats which is making this 'recession' messier. I find it funny that they are still calling it a 'recession'. Europe is apparently becoming messier because of Euro and austerity measures. US is already messy with seat belt tightening not working out as it was expected to. In India, no one knows how this is going to peter out, rather how and when this is going to explode.
Nobel laureate, Joseph Stiglitz may believe that India's well placed to take on Round 2 of recession, but right from the day of 'subprime mortgage crisis', I have always felt that this IS depression. I did not live during Great Depression in 1930s, but quite sure that world was not a small place then as it is now. I earn my butter (unfortunately?) only because of globalization, but the spread of 'growth' in the name of industrialization has only created 'exclusivity' of different kinds.
The inevitable collapse of the dollar did say that to perk up economy in the US, rest of the world has to start consuming. These nations have been living far below than what they could actually live with. The bank runs that have been happening in US are not happening in India exactly because of this. It is not to say that India has been conservative but banks in India knew what they were doing and DID ONLY THAT. Though there was a short period of time when 'private banks' like ICICI and HDFC almost gave loans for free (my home loan is entirely free) in the sense that they believed that I will repay (that I have been repaying regularly is another issue). Loan was granted when I was working in Texas Instruments, but I dont think they know where/if I worked 5 months after getting the loan or even where/if I work currently. IT domain was given 'collateralized debt obligation' then, I guess :)) In India, maybe we dont like to default on loans and would like pay it diligently/sincerely to have some respect in the society. Society/family is far more important, STILL :((
In India, probably the older 'castes' are becoming insignificant as a new 'digital divide' is playing far more crucial role. There is no point in being happy that India is better off than other nations in this 'recession'. That is another point because recession is 'perceived' milder compared to depression. Just like that Richard Dawkins talk on using 'agnostic' instead of 'atheist' is perceived 'well' in some sections of the society. How well people behaved during the Great Depression might also be a point of concern. I think people have become more single minded for sure atleast in countries like India. The distribution of 'discomfort/pain' is good globally but brutal locally. Of course, hope-peddlers will always give the tinkerbell principle
If people had any doubts about Mamata Didi, the fighter, then news 'Trinamool Congress outperforms Left in West Bengal civic polls' should settle it. To put in Richie Benaud's terms, she is not a now-and-then-scrapper, she is a real FIGHTER. I hope that she doesnt become complacent because municipal polls are municipal polls and assembly polls are assembly polls. Just because she has won municipal polls, she should not hurry assembly polls. Contrary to some 'analysts' like Cho Ramasamy, who are 'conservative', I would like her to go into Assembly polls alone and 'ignore' the Congress, though support from Centre could be helpful if Trinamool wins as expected and Mamata indeed becomes the Chief Minister. Allying with Congress 'to be safe' will lead to needless nuisance. She should take her time, plan things well and go for the kill ALONE at the scheduled time. In India, only Tamil Nadu and Kashmir can say that they have 'almost banished' Congress. In all other states, Congress is one of the two main parties, if not the ruling party.
Though Uttar Pradesh or Bihar too did not have Congress rule for quite some time, still I suspect Congress always had its 'base' and now it is making a return, apparently due to the drive of Rahul Gandhi. West Bengal has Communist rule for decades and not that I have any axe to grind against them, but I find them to be 'textbookish' communists, talking perenially in jargons and looking towards China/Russia for everything. I think governments in Tamil Nadu (ADMK/DMK) have shown the way for pragmatic Communism and more importantly, 'inclusive growth' in the true sense of the word. Jammu and Kashmir may be another state which also has banished Congress. It is time that West Bengal too displaces Congress formally and more forcefully as the main party in a state. West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are one of the top important states, atleast by numbers. DMK has virtually been ruling for the last three terms, winning parliamentary elections comprehensively, being part of BJP led NDA for one terms and with Congress led UPA for two terms now.
I think Mamata has many factors on her side. The main factor is she is fighting communists. In these days of single mindedness, I wonder how Bengalis voted for Communists for so long. Trinamool infact has the biggest challenge. Even if it wins in 2011, it should know that it cant change things overnight. The entire 'government machinery' has been oiled and used to communist 'methods'. She in all likelihood, can only but 'disappoint' Bengalis, much like Obama in US. Audacity of hope is fine but voters are finicky to expect 'instant' changes, which are definitely not possible in democracy. US or West Bengal.
